# Who will invite whom to lunch? Reflections on the role of the world agri-industry now and in the near future > Published: 2026-08-18 ↩ Back to the text Disclaimer: We planned to dedicate this article to specialty concentrated juices and purees, but the volume of collected information forced us to finish it with a review and reflections on global agribusiness now and in the near future. The presented material is exclusively informational and popular science in nature. All numerical and statistical indicators in the article are given as of the period 2024–2025 in accordance with the original research materials. ANIX cannot guarantee the absolute accuracy of the data provided. They differ across sources, and that is natural. Geopolitical scenario examples are also no more than probable, even given their partial development in the surrounding, rapidly changing world. All practical decisions in the field of B2B procurement, freight, and long-term planning of aseptic raw material logistics should be made on the basis of official technical specifications, current contracts, and individual professional consultations with our specialists. Oil is going away. Food remains. And it is precisely it that will become the main weapon of the 21st century Table of contents Chapter 1. Introduction: the most important monopoly nobody talks about How ten countries took control of half of the planet's food production, and why calories matter more than barrels. Chapter 2. How the world food supply system works Analysis of the four regional food hubs of the Earth and the grand shift of power in logistics over the past 20 years. Chapter 3. Top 30 largest food exporters in 2026 Interactive summary table of exporters by broad and narrow methodology with key advantages. Chapter 4. Profiles of all 30 countries: who, what, and why Detailed analysis of each of the thirty leaders: from the USA and Brazil to Peru, Chile, Pakistan, and Cambodia. Chapter 5. Leaders in key food categories Industry rankings for wheat, corn, rice, meat, milk, seafood, olive oil, sugar, and fruit. Chapter 6. The small-country phenomenon: why technology beats hectares How the Netherlands, Belgium, and Denmark overtake geographic giants in agro-export value. Chapter 7. The geopolitics of food: how grain became a weapon Food wars, the fertilizer monopoly, logistics blackmail, and control over the Strait of Hormuz. Chapter 8. Climate shift: who wins and who loses by 2050 How climate change shifts agroclimatic zones into Northern Europe and Canada, destroying the cropland of the Global South. Chapter 9. Agritech 4.0: AI, robots, and farms without land LED vertical farms, AI berry pickers, targeted Precision Farming and CRISPR editing. Chapter 10. Who will feed the world in 2050 Division of the planet into the technological mode of biosynthesis and the raw-material mode of global granaries. Chapter 11. Main threats: three collapse scenarios Morocco's phosphate crisis, logistical paralysis of narrow straits, and the dangerous genetic uniformity of hybrids. Chapter 12. Conclusion: the new oil is already here A final audit of the food system and the inevitability of food diplomacy. FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions Answers to popular questions about agro-export leaders, the role of the Netherlands, phosphates, and climate winners. Introduction: the most important monopoly nobody talks about Ten countries control half of the world's food. Read that again. Not half the oil. Not half the rare earth metals. Half of the food — the one resource without which a person dies within a few weeks. We are used to talking about oil dependence as the main vulnerability of the modern world. OPEC[?], the Middle East, pipeline blackmail — all of it sounds threatening. But oil has a replacement. Electric vehicles. Solar panels. Nuclear energy. The process is painful, but it is underway. Food has no replacement. That is why the 21st century will be defined not by barrels but by calories. Not by oil tankers but by grain carriers loaded with wheat. Not by control over the Persian Gulf but by control over the black soil of Ukraine, the pampas of Argentina, and the endless soybean fields of Brazil. This process is already underway; most people just do not notice it. In 2022, the blockade of Black Sea corridors instantly sent global wheat prices soaring. Egypt — a country where bread is traditionally subsidized by the government and is the foundation of social stability — found itself on the brink of a profound crisis. Not because of war on its own territory, but because of hostilities thousands of kilometers from its borders. That is the new reality. This article presents a picture of global agro-export: who feeds the world, how it works, who is vulnerable, and why by 2050 the map of agricultural superpowers will look completely different from today. How the world food supply system works The global agricultural export market has come close to the $1.5 trillion mark per year. For comparison: that is more than the GDP[?] of countries such as Australia or Spain. These huge financial and commodity flows move along strictly structured regional routes. Four regional hubs The American continent (about 30% share of global agricultural exports) is the base supplier of calories for the entire planet. The USA, Brazil, Canada and Mexico provide colossal volumes of raw commodities: soybeans, corn, wheat and meat. Their strategy is scale, volume and uninterrupted supply. The European hub (about 25% market share) operates under a different economic logic. Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain and Italy focus on high-margin niches and high value-added products: dairy products, wines, premium cheeses, olive oil and ready-made confectionery. Intra-regional trade within the EU and re-export through the largest port hubs play a huge role here. Southeast and South Asia (about 11% market share) is a macro-region specializing in rice, palm oil and seafood. India, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia act as key guarantors of food security for developing countries whose survival directly depends on the stability of the rice market. Oceania is a strategically important hub. Australia and New Zealand are the largest suppliers of high-quality animal protein and grain crops for Asia's rapidly growing markets, which place ever higher demands on food quality. Why concentration is dangerous If the five largest oil suppliers simultaneously cut production by a third, the world economy would plunge into chaos. However, in the energy sector developed countries are protected by strategic reserves designed for 60–90 days of consumption. Global grain stocks average the same 70–80 days, but food shocks hit humanity incomparably harder. Famine and social unrest in import-dependent regions develop rapidly, while the international response system is sluggish. How the world has changed in 20 years A historical retrospective of the last two decades points to a radical shift in the centers of power. In 2000, the dominance of the USA and Western Europe seemed unshakable. Since then, the balance of power has changed: Brazil posted the strongest absolute growth in agricultural exports on the planet — by $129,12 billion. For attentive readers: According to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA) and the WTO, in 2000 the net export of food and agricultural raw materials (excluding pulp and timber) was $15,28 billion. Brazil has performed a colossal "agricultural miracle" over the past 25 years. The USA increased sales by $115,90 billion. The Netherlands increased exports by $106,02 billion. In relative terms, explosive growth of new agricultural giants was recorded: The export potential of Poland grew 22,54 times. The global markets increased delivery volumes 24,97 times. Ukraine increased exports 14,09 times. Vietnam demonstrated growth of 10,79 times. Top-30 largest food exporters (2024–2025) 💡 Methodological note: Narrow and Broad agricultural exports When analyzing the global food market, it is critical to distinguish between two key calculation methodologies: Narrow methodology (Direct export of local calories): Takes into account exclusively agricultural products physically grown and produced within a given country. For example, for the Netherlands this figure is only 37.3 billion dollars, since the country's area physically does not allow growing raw materials at the scale of giants like the USA or Brazil. Broad methodology (Gross exports including re-exports): Includes transit activity, processing of imported raw materials and re-export of finished products. Under this methodology, the Netherlands jumps to 137.5 billion euros, acting as Europe's largest logistics and technology hub, which buys raw materials (cocoa beans, tropical oils, fruits), subjects them to deep processing and exports finished products with enormous added value. For European transit centers (the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Italy, Belgium) both figures are given in the table to provide the most reliable picture of the balance of power on the global market. Rank Flag Country Exports (Narrow / Broad) Key agricultural specialization 1 USA 181.3 billion dollars (narrow) Soybeans, corn, wheat, beef, poultry. Partners: China, Mexico, Canada, Japan 2 Brazil 144.4 billion dollars (narrow) Soybeans, sugar, coffee, beef, poultry, corn. Partners: China, European Union, Middle East 3 China 74.8 billion dollars (narrow) Garlic, apples, tea, fish and seafood. Partners: Japan, USA, Hong Kong, Southeast Asian countries 4 Canada 66.3 billion dollars (narrow) Canola, wheat, pork, lentils. Partners: USA, China, Japan 5 Mexico 49.9 billion dollars (narrow) Avocados, tomatoes, berries, beer, tequila. Partners: USA, Canada, Japan 6 Indonesia 49.7 billion dollars (narrow) Palm oil, seafood, rubber. Partners: China, India, EU, Pakistan 7 Australia 45.8 billion dollars (narrow) Beef, wheat, barley, wine, wool. Partners: China, Japan, South Korea, Middle East 8 India 45.5 billion dollars (narrow) Rice, spices, sugar, tea, buffalo meat. Partners: Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa, USA 9 Thailand 41.8 billion dollars (narrow) Rice, sugar, poultry meat, canned tuna. Partners: China, Japan, USA, ASEAN countries 10 France 38.7 billion dollars (narrow) Wine, wheat, barley, cheeses, dairy products. Partners: Germany, Belgium, Italy, United Kingdom 11 The Netherlands 37.3 billion dollars (narrow) Flowers, cheeses, greenhouse vegetables, eggs. Partners: Germany, Belgium, France, United Kingdom 12 Argentina 34.8 billion dollars (narrow) Soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, beef. Partners: China, India, Brazil, EU 13 Malaysia 33.5 billion dollars (narrow) Palm oil, palm oil fractionation products. Partners: India, China, EU, USA 14 Turkey 31.4 billion dollars (narrow) Hazelnuts, dried fruits, citrus fruits, olive oil. Partners: EU, global markets, Middle East, Iraq 15 United Kingdom 30.9 billion dollars (narrow) Scotch whisky, finished processed products. Partners: EU, USA, Canada 16 Germany 102.2 billion dollars (broad) Pork, dairy products, chocolate, beer. Partners: EU countries, China, USA 17 Spain 74.3 billion dollars (broad) Olive oil, citrus fruits, pork, vegetables. Partners: France, Germany, Italy, United Kingdom 18 Italy 70.5 billion dollars (broad) Wine, pasta, cheeses, olive oil. Partners: Germany, France, USA, United Kingdom 19 Poland 53.8 billion dollars (broad) Poultry, beef, dairy products, apples. Partners: Germany, United Kingdom, EU countries 20 global markets 40.9 billion dollars (narrow, 2025) Wheat, vegetable oils, fish, fertilizers. Partners: Turkey, Egypt, China, India, Kazakhstan 21 Ukraine 22.7 billion dollars (narrow, 2025) Sunflower oil, corn, wheat, meal. Partners: EU countries, China, Egypt, Turkey 22 Vietnam 24.8 billion dollars (broad) Rice, coffee, seafood (pangasius), cashews. Partners: USA, China, Japan, EU 23 Belgium 45.0 billion dollars (broad) Chocolate, French fries, dairy products, beer. Partners: France, Germany, Netherlands, United Kingdom 24 New Zealand 16.5 billion dollars (narrow) Powdered milk, butter, cheese, lamb. Partners: China, Australia, USA, EU 25 Denmark 15.2 billion dollars (broad) Pork, cheeses, butter, seed material. Partners: Germany, Sweden, United Kingdom, China 26 Ecuador 9.53 billion dollars (broad) Bananas, shrimp, cocoa, roses. Partners: USA, EU, China, global markets 27 Peru 12.43 billion dollars (broad) Grapes, avocados, blueberries, asparagus, fish meal. Partners: USA, Netherlands, China, Spain 28 Chile 14.63 billion dollars (broad) Salmon, cherries, blueberries, wine, apples. Partners: USA, China, Japan, Brazil 29 Pakistan 8.0 billion dollars (broad) Basmati rice, mangoes, citrus fruits. Partners: Middle East, EU, China 30 Cambodia 4.61 billion dollars (broad) Rice, cassava, bananas. Partners: Vietnam, Thailand, China, EU For a correct comparison of countries, the table shows export figures under the narrow methodology (direct export of local calories) based on current balances, and for European hub countries the broad figure ("broad") is additionally given, including re-export volumes of raw materials of foreign origin, including processed products. Profiles of all 30 countries: who, what and why 1. USA — a high-tech agricultural empire American agriculture functions as a large-scale high-tech corporate industry. In physical terms, the country totally dominates the global feed grain market, producing a record 432,34 million tons of corn per year and exporting from 10% to 20% of this volume. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector's share of national GDP[?] is only 1,2%, but it serves as a powerful locomotive for related industries: machinery, chemical synthesis and global logistics. Advantages: Huge scale of farmland, developed port infrastructure of the Gulf of Mexico and the Great Lakes, as well as the total adoption of precision farming systems (Precision Farming), AI and satellite positioning, which have become the industry standard. Vulnerabilities: Extreme dependence on purchases by the PRC. A serious threat is posed by the progressive degradation of water resources, in particular, the catastrophic depletion of the giant Ogallala aquifer beneath the central states. Unexpected fact: The USA holds absolute global leadership in nut exports, supplying them for about $14,9 billion per year. California's almond plantations provide a key share of global consumption. 2. Brazil — the global protein factory Brazil has finally secured its status as the planet's leading "protein factory" and the main contender for absolute leadership in global agricultural exports by 2050. The agribusiness complex accounts for about 25% of national GDP[?] and is the main source of foreign currency earnings for the economy. Physical production volumes are impressive: the soybean harvest consistently exceeds 135 million tons, and sugarcane — 782,6 million tons. Advantages: A huge fund of free fertile land and unique climatic conditions that allow harvesting two crops a year under the intensive "safrinha" system. Vulnerabilities: A severe, chronic shortage of elevator and port grain storage capacity. Critical dependence on imports of nitrogen and potassium fertilizers (primarily from the global markets), as well as relentless international environmental pressure over deforestation in the Amazon basin. Unexpected fact: Brazil produces about 30% of the world's fresh oranges, but in the concentrated orange juice sector (FCOJ[?]) it holds an absolute global monopoly, providing more than 75–80% of all world exports. 3. China — the great agricultural paradox Despite having the world's largest agricultural land fund (over 2 million square miles), the PRC remains a net importer of food. The reason for the paradox is simple — the colossal calorie needs of a population of 1.4 billion. The country pursues a smart strategy: it exports processed products with high added value (garlic, tea, apples, canned goods, aquaculture products) while simultaneously purchasing colossal volumes of raw materials. Advantages: The world's largest food processing sector, state subsidies, and an unlimited domestic market. Vulnerabilities: An acute shortage of arable land and clean water per capita, large-scale chemical pollution of soils, and the rapid aging of the rural population. Unexpected fact: China produces and controls about 80% of the world's garlic output (acting as an analog of OPEC[?] in this segment) and is also the undisputed leader in the concentrated apple juice market (AJC[?]), accounting for about 40–50% of total global exports. 4. Canada — the quiet northern giant Canada is a key global supplier of short-season agricultural crops, focused on stringent raw-material quality standards. The country exports over 25.5 million tonnes of wheat per year, which is highly valued on world markets for its elevated gluten content and is purchased by milling plants to improve raw-material blends. Advantages: A scientific school of plant breeding, absolute dominance in canola seeding technologies, and well-oiled railway logistics. Vulnerabilities: A growing season limited by climate and strong economic vulnerability to changes in U.S. trade policy and tariff wars with China. Unexpected fact: Canada is the unrivaled leader in the pulses sector: about 40% of all global trade in lentils and dry peas is provided by Canadian farmers. 5. Mexico — avocado as a national brand Mexico has carved out a premium economic niche, becoming a key year-round supplier of fresh fruit and vegetables to the wealthiest consumer market of the United States. The geographic factor plays a decisive role here: 91% of Mexico's agricultural exports go to NAFTA[?] partners. Avocado has become a crucial element of national agricultural policy — the country controls more than 30% of the world market. Advantages: Unique biodiversity of tropical zones, no seasonal breaks in production, and a direct land border with the United States. Vulnerabilities: Total mono-dependence on a single buyer. Any tariff fluctuations from Washington instantly push Mexico's agricultural sector to the brink of survival. Unexpected fact: The single Mexican state of Michoacan produces more avocado than any other country in the world. The high profitability of the business has led to plantations becoming a target of tight control and shadow taxation by local drug cartels. 6. Indonesia — the palm oil monopoly Indonesia is the absolute leader of the world palm oil market, which serves as a base component for the food industry, cosmetics sector, and biodiesel production across the planet. The country exports this resource worth $28.5 billion per year, controlling about 19% of the global market for vegetable oils and fats. Advantages: Flawless climatic conditions for growing oil palm and extremely low production costs. Vulnerabilities: Growing regulatory pressure from the European Union, which is imposing strict import restrictions due to the large-scale clearing of pristine tropical forests for new plantations. Unexpected fact: Palm oil of Indonesian origin is present in about half of all packaged goods sitting on European supermarket shelves — from confectionery to toothpaste. 7. Australia — a strategic supplier for Asia Australia's agribusiness is focused on supplying Asia's premium markets with high-quality animal protein and grain crops. The country has an undeniable logistics advantage: the delivery leg from the Australian coast to the ports of Japan, China, or South Korea is significantly shorter than from the United States or South America. Wheat exports exceed 29.2 million tonnes. Advantages: Vast pasturelands, strict veterinary control, and an impeccable international reputation as a supplier of "eco-friendly" products. Vulnerabilities: Extreme exposure to the destructive El Nino climate cycles, which can cause multi-year droughts and cut export potential several times over. Unexpected fact: Australia is the undisputed leader of the global wool market. Merino wool from Australian auctions forms the basis for producing expensive fabrics in Italy and Japan. 8. India — the guardian of the global rice balance India acts as the main regulator of the global rice market, providing about 40% of all global supplies. Any tariff or export restrictions from New Delhi instantly trigger food inflation in Africa and Asia. More than half of the country's working population is employed in the agricultural sector (over 800 million people). The physical volume of the rice harvest is forecast at 152 million tonnes. Advantages: The presence of many unique agro-climatic zones and a state price support system (MSP) guaranteeing grain purchases from farmers. Vulnerabilities: Total dependence on the stability of summer monsoons, critical depletion of underground aquifers, and archaic logistics — due to a shortage of cold storage capacity, up to 30% of perishable harvest is spoiled. Unexpected fact: India is the world's largest supplier of buffalo meat. This product fully replaces traditional beef in the markets of the Middle East and Southeast Asia without violating religious taboos associated with the slaughter of cows. 9. Thailand — a smart Asian processor Thailand has successfully moved away from the model of exporting only raw calories. While holding strong positions in rice and sugar, the kingdom has built a powerful industry of deep food processing. The country has become the world's leading supplier of canned tuna and high-value-added poultry meat products. Advantages: High-tech processing plants, a diversified export basket, and developed trade ties within ASEAN[?]. Vulnerabilities: Rapidly growing competition from Vietnam and Myanmar in the base segment, as well as the strengthening of the national currency (the baht), which reduces price competitiveness. Unexpected fact: Thailand provides about 30% of global exports of tapioca starch made from cassava — an indispensable texturizer and thickener for the global food industry. 10. France — cultural brand as an economic weapon The French Republic is implementing a unique strategy: it sells not just food products, but elements of national culture and prestige. The system for controlling geographical indications AOC[?] (Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée — authenticity-of-origin control) has turned ordinary products into costly protected marketing assets. The gross turnover of the agricultural sector, including premium alcohol and cheeses, exceeds $83.4 billion. Advantages: The exceptional value of premium brands (Champagne, Cognac, Roquefort), the highest grain yields in the northern departments, and a powerful agricultural lobby within EU structures. Vulnerabilities: Extremely high local labor costs, strict EU environmental regulations on reducing nitrogen fertilizers, and more frequent summer droughts. Unexpected fact: France is the largest corn producer in the European Union. Despite associations with winemaking, millions of tonnes of French corn go every year to feed livestock complexes in Germany and Belgium. 11. Netherlands — an agritech miracle A small state, smaller in area than many global regions, demonstrates fantastic gross exports across a wide product range (crop farming, flowers, livestock), reaching a historic record of €137.5 billion, with a net trade balance surplus of €42.4 billion. The country acts as Europe's main innovation and logistics hub. A detailed breakdown of this phenomenon is presented in Chapter 6. Unexpected fact: The Netherlands exports many times more fresh tomatoes than sunny Spain. Dutch automated greenhouse complexes fully compensate for the lack of natural sunlight with LED supplemental lighting and AI-driven climate control. 12. Argentina — hostage to soybean meal Argentina is the world's leading supplier of soybean meal and soybean oil, forming the basis of the feed supply for poultry and pig farming in Europe and Asia. The country possesses a unique natural resource — the humid pampas with the highest natural soil fertility. The physical volume of corn exports exceeds 35.4 million tonnes. Advantages: Flawless soil conditions and strategic river logistics: port terminals on the Parana River allow loading Panamax-class ocean vessels directly within the borders of the soybean production belt. Vulnerabilities: Years of macroeconomic instability and prohibitive state export duties ("retenciones"), which drain working capital from farmers and hold back the modernization of medium-sized farms. Unexpected fact: Agricultural exports provide up to 60% of all foreign currency inflows to the country. Without stable supplies of soybeans and meal, Argentina's financial system instantly loses the ability to service its external debt. 13. Malaysia — the second pillar of the oilseed duopoly Malaysia holds a firm position as the world's second-largest palm oil producer. Together with Indonesia, they have formed a rigid global duopoly, controlling about 85% of the world market for this strategic raw material. Advantages: A high level of consolidation of processing capacity, developed port infrastructure, and long-term contracts with the largest food industry corporations in the United States and India. Vulnerabilities: Environmental risks and the aging of plantations — the life cycle of the oil palm is about 25 years, and their large-scale renewal requires enormous one-time investments. Unexpected fact: Malaysia is the largest hidden supplier of secondary-processed cocoa products. A significant share of famous Belgian and Swiss chocolate is made from Malaysian semi-finished product. 14. Türkiye — Eurasia's agricultural bridge Türkiye deftly exploits its unique geographic position, serving as the main fruit-and-vegetable garden for Europe and global markets, as well as a key transit and processing hub for the Middle East. The country holds an absolute monopoly on the global hazelnut market, controlling about 70% of the world volume. Advantages: A huge variety of climate zones, access to cheap labor, and a developed confectionery processing industry. Vulnerabilities: High domestic inflation, rising costs of imported agrochemical components, and dependence on the stability of trade relations with global markets and the EU. Unexpected fact: The famous confectionery spread Nutella is in fact almost entirely dependent on the Turkish agricultural sector — a hazelnut crop failure in Anatolia instantly paralyzes Ferrero's plants around the world. 15. United Kingdom — premium alcohol and re-export The United Kingdom is not among the major exporters of basic food raw materials. London's strategy is built on supplying highly branded ready-to-eat food products and premium alcohol with colossal added value. Advantages: Worldwide recognition of the Scottish whisky brand (Scotch Whisky), which generates more than $7 billion in export revenue per year and is protected by strict international legislation. Vulnerabilities: The consequences of leaving the EU (Brexit), which created long-term administrative and customs barriers in supplies of fresh products (salmon, dairy goods) to the key European market. Unexpected fact: Scottish whisky exports reach more than 180 countries worldwide. By value, this drink surpasses the combined exports of all British meat, grain, and dairy products. 16. Germany — Europe's industrial agro-processor Germany holds the position of the EU's largest agricultural exporter by broad measure, thanks to the flawless industrial efficiency of its food plants. The country buys huge volumes of raw materials, subjects them to deep technological processing, and exports finished products with high margins. Advantages: High automation of pig and dairy complexes, a central logistics position in Europe, and impeccable quality standards. Vulnerabilities: Acute dependence on the stability of feed protein (soybean) imports from South America and strict EU environmental restrictions on the disposal of livestock waste. Unexpected fact: Germany is simultaneously the largest importer and the largest exporter of food in Central Europe, operating like a giant factory conveyor for processing calories. 17. Spain — the world's olive oil monopolist Spain is the main fruit, vegetable, and olive workshop of the European Union. The kingdom accounts for about 40% of world olive oil production. The climate anomalies of recent years have vividly demonstrated Madrid's market power: a drought in Andalusia instantly drives world oil prices up by 2.5 times. Advantages: Unique natural conditions for growing citrus and oilseed crops, as well as a powerful, highly industrialized pork sector (jamón production). Vulnerabilities: A critical, existential shortage of water resources. The progressive desertification of the southern provinces threatens the future of Spain's intensive farming. Unexpected fact: Spanish jamón has become a crucial status product for China's growing middle class, which is why the PRC has become a key strategic buyer of Spanish pork. 18. Italy — gastronomic identity as a business The Italian economic model in the agricultural sector completely rules out competition on raw-material volumes. The country exports a lifestyle for which the global consumer is willing to pay a maximum premium. Parmesan, prosciutto, top-category wines, and premium pasta are protected by strict regulations — Italy leads the EU in the number of registered geographical indications. Advantages: Unreachable brand capital of the Made in Italy label, the highest margins on finished products, and a diversified sales geography. Vulnerabilities: High production costs, a small-scale structure of farms that impedes rapid robotization, and a shortage of innovation capital. Unexpected fact: Italy imports up to 40% of its durum wheat. A significant share of the famous "Italian" pasta is made from high-protein grain grown by Canadian or Kazakh farmers. 19. Poland — an Eastern European agricultural breakthrough Poland has delivered one of the most impressive leaps in recent history, increasing agricultural exports more than 22-fold over two decades. The skillful use of EU Common Agricultural Policy subsidies (CAP[?]) made it possible to modernize thousands of farms and turn the country into Europe's leading supplier of poultry and apples. Advantages: Favorable soil conditions, relatively low labor costs compared with France or Germany, and aggressive marketing in EU markets. Vulnerabilities: Acute economic and political friction with Ukrainian producers over the influx of cheaper grain and raw materials from Ukraine. Unexpected fact: Poland is the undisputed leader of the European Union in apple production. Until the food embargo was introduced in 2014, Polish horticultural farms fully covered the needs of global markets's largest metropolises. 20. global markets — a wheat superpower under sanctions pressure The global markets has made an unprecedented transition from the status of the largest grain importer at the end of the 20th century to the position of the undisputed leader of the world wheat market, controlling about 22% of global exports. Agricultural export revenue at the end of 2025 reached $40.9 billion. The country acts as a key guarantor of food security for the MENA[?] macroregion. The physical export volume in the 2025/2026 season is estimated at 80 million tonnes of products (of which wheat accounts for 44 million tonnes). Advantages: A huge, unique fund of chernozem soils, a record-low world production cost per tonne of grain, and an ideal geographic position for supplying Egypt, Türkiye, and the Persian Gulf states. Vulnerabilities: A persisting dependence on imports of parent seed lines (sugar beet, potatoes), imported veterinary drugs, and components of complex machinery. Sanctions restrictions act as a serious barrier, complicating international settlements, vessel insurance, and freight. Unexpected fact: global markets holds first place in the world in sunflower oil exports, ahead of Ukraine, turning this resource into a crucial instrument of economic diplomacy with Global South countries. 21. Ukraine — agricultural exports under extreme conditions Despite the colossal infrastructure destruction caused by the protracted military conflict, Ukraine's agricultural sector remains a key pillar of the national economy's survival, providing a record 56% of all the state's foreign currency revenue. Food exports in 2025 amounted to $22.71 billion. The physical volume of grain exports in the 2024/2025 season reached 54.4 million tonnes, based on supplies of corn (13.53 million tonnes over 10 months of 2025) and wheat (11.76 million tonnes). Advantages: Possession of the world's best expanses of highly fertile chernozem soils and a developed (though vulnerable) deep-water port infrastructure on the Black Sea and the Danube. Vulnerabilities: About 1 million hectares of arable land require large-scale demining. The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Plant completely deprived more than 600 thousand hectares of land in the south of the country of irrigation systems. There is an acute shortage of skilled labor (more than 20% of companies report a staffing crisis). Unexpected fact: Ukraine is the historic monopolist of the sunflower oil market (about 50% of world supplies in the pre-war period). Disruptions in Ukrainian exports instantly cause panic on vegetable oil exchanges from Rotterdam to New Delhi. 22. Vietnam — an Asian agricultural tiger Vietnam has demonstrated phenomenal rates of integration into global trade chains, increasing supply volumes almost 11-fold. The country firmly holds a spot in the top 3 world exporters of rice and coffee, and also leads in the cashew and aquaculture sectors. Advantages: The unique climatic conditions of the Mekong Delta, an abundance of cheap labor, and aggressive free-trade agreement-making with the EU and the United States. Vulnerabilities: The existential threat of climate change — the rising level of the World Ocean is leading to large-scale soil salinization in the Mekong Delta, threatening the future of rice farming by 2050. Unexpected fact: Vietnam is the world's second-largest coffee producer, ahead of Colombia. The country specializes in growing hardy robusta, which forms the basis for producing instant coffee of the largest global brands. 23. Belgium — an industrial processing hub Belgium is a classic example of a European value-added economy, operating as a giant logistics and processing terminal through the deep-water port of Antwerp. Advantages: Impeccable traditions of food processing and strong national brands. Belgian chocolate is made from Ghanaian cocoa beans, the famous French fries — from Dutch raw materials, and export beer — from German barley. Vulnerabilities: High domestic energy costs and total dependence on the uninterrupted import of raw calories. Unexpected fact: Belgium controls about a quarter of world exports of frozen French fries. Most European fast-food restaurants use exactly the Belgian semi-finished product. 24. New Zealand — the planet's dairy monopolist A country with a population of just 5 million people holds unprecedented control over the global dairy market: every fifth tonne of exported dairy products is of New Zealand origin. Exports of drinking and powdered milk bring the country a record $6.9 billion per year. The mega-cooperative Fonterra completely dominates the sector, dictating prices for dry milk proteins on Asian exchanges. Advantages: A year-round pasture-based livestock system that provides the world's lowest production cost of raw milk. Vulnerabilities: A critical, dangerous dependence on China's import policy (which takes up to a third of all volumes) and the introduction of strict national environmental taxes on methane emissions from livestock activity. Unexpected fact: New Zealand exports dairy products per capita roughly 20 times more than the United States of America. 25. Denmark — exporting genetics and biotechnologies Denmark's agricultural strategy is the most sophisticated in Europe. The country long ago moved away from competing in raw-meat supply volumes, betting instead on selling unique biological technologies and genetic material. Advantages: A hundred years of strict breeding made it possible to create a Danish pig breed with benchmark feed-conversion characteristics. Livestock complexes in China and Latin America are buying Danish pedigree boars in bulk to modernize their herds. Vulnerabilities: Ultra-strict EU environmental legislation limiting nitrogen emissions, forcing Danish farmers to artificially reduce their livestock numbers. Unexpected fact: Denmark is the world leader in the sugar beet seed sector. Most of the acreage of this crop in continental Europe and global markets is sown with seeds developed by Danish biologists. 26. Ecuador — bananas, shrimp, and highland roses Ecuador is the undisputed leader of the global banana market, controlling about 25% of all world supplies. However, the country's agricultural sector is diversified: in parallel, Ecuador has become a powerful exporter of warm-water shrimp (aquaculture) and premium cacao. Advantages: Ideal climatic conditions of the equatorial zone and access to cheap labor. Vulnerabilities: The extreme vulnerability of banana plantations to aggressive fungal diseases, in particular to race TR4 ("Panama disease"), which can completely destroy commercial plantings. Unexpected fact: Ecuador is the world's largest supplier of premium cut roses. The unique combination of highland conditions (2000–3000 meters above sea level), bright equatorial sun, and cool nights makes it possible to grow flowers with perfectly straight, sturdy stems. 27. Peru — superfoods from the Andes Peruvian agribusiness has made a revolution by betting on promoting the "superfoods" concept in the markets of wealthy countries. Peruvian blueberries, fresh avocado, asparagus, and quinoa have taken leading positions in retail chains across the United States and the EU. Advantages: The presence of unique microclimatic zones (from the arid coast to the highland valleys of the Andes) and the richest Pacific Ocean fishing grounds, providing leadership in fishmeal production (a base component of feed for global aquaculture). Vulnerabilities: The destructive impact of the El Nino ocean climate phenomenon, which can cause a sharp warming of coastal waters, the departure of anchovies from the shores, and catastrophic flooding on plantations. Unexpected fact: Anchovies caught by Peruvian trawlers in the Pacific Ocean are turned into fishmeal, which serves as the main indispensable feed element for Norwegian farmed salmon and China's poultry farms. 28. Chile — the salmon industry of Patagonia Chile is a unique example of a country stretched along a meridian, which allows it to simultaneously develop completely polar agricultural directions. The cold, clean fjords of Patagonia have turned the country into the world's second-largest producer and exporter of farmed salmon after Norway, while the central valleys provide mass supplies of cherries and blueberries to China. Advantages: A diversity of climate profiles and well-oiled logistics with Asian markets willing to pay top prices for fresh berries for the lunar New Year. Vulnerabilities: Environmental problems of farmed aquaculture, regular outbreaks of specific salmon diseases requiring mass use of antibiotics, which draws criticism from American regulators. Unexpected fact: Chile's geographic length allows berry and fruit harvests to be gathered in a continuous conveyor, moving from north to south over four months. 29. Pakistan — premium basmati rice under threat Pakistan consistently ranks in the top 5 world rice suppliers, specializing in the high-margin, aromatic basmati variety, and also holds strong positions in mango and citrus exports to the Middle East. Advantages: The presence of the unique "basmati rice" brand, which secures a high price per tonne of product, and an abundance of cheap labor. Vulnerabilities: A growing, catastrophic water crisis. The country's agricultural system is entirely dependent on the irrigation basin of the Indus River, which is rapidly shallowing due to glacier melting and bitter geopolitical disputes over water resources with India. Unexpected fact: Pakistan and India have been waging a years-long irreconcilable patent dispute within EU structures over the right to sole ownership of the protected geographical indication Basmati. 30. Cambodia — a rice outsider with big ambitions Cambodia rounds out the top thirty leaders, demonstrating an interesting strategy: the country bets not on gross volumes but on producing organic, premium rice varieties. Cambodian jasmine rice has repeatedly won the title of best in the world at prestigious international competitions. Advantages: A huge fund of clean, non-chemically treated soils and extremely low domestic costs. Vulnerabilities: A chronic shortage of grain elevators and weak port infrastructure, forcing Cambodian farmers to sell a significant part of the harvest in raw form to neighboring Vietnam and Thailand for subsequent re-export. Unexpected fact: As recently as the end of the 20th century, Cambodia was a net food importer — the country's agricultural potential was completely destroyed during the era of genocide and the rule of the "Khmer Rouge". It took more than twenty years to restore basic food security. Leaders in key food categories Below are industry rankings of exporting countries, compiled on the basis of physical (in tonnes) and value indicators using current balances. Wheat Wheat is the key food grain that supplies the planet's baking industry. Notable detail: A Ukrainian tonne of wheat trades substantially cheaper on the world market than an Australian or Canadian one. This reflects not only quality parameters (protein content) but also a forced discount linked to the high military risks of vessel insurance when chartering in Black Sea ports. Corn Corn serves as the basis of livestock feed and as a feedstock for bioethanol. Note: The U.S. corn export figure includes vast volumes of both raw grain and products of its deep industrial processing: high-protein dried distillers grains (DDGS) and fuel ethanol. If only pure commercial grain is considered, the gap over Brazil looks substantially smaller. Rice Rice is the staple food for half of the planet's population, and its trade is strictly regulated by Asian countries. Meat and meat products The meat market is controlled by major exporters of beef, pork, and poultry from the New World. Dairy products The dairy products market is characterized by a high concentration of production in Oceania and EU countries. Fish and seafood Aquaculture and ocean fishing form a dynamic market for fish products. Vegetable oils and fats This segment is dominated by Southeast Asia (palm oil) and the Black Sea region (sunflower oil). Sugar The sugar market depends heavily on cane production in tropical zones and beet production in temperate latitudes. Vegetables and fruits (separate value accounting) Fruit and vegetable products are characterized by the maximum added value per unit of weight. Fruits and nuts: 1. 🇺🇸 USA — $14.9 billion (10.5% of the world market) 2. 🇪🇸 Spain — $10.6 billion (7.5% of the world market) 3. 🇲🇽 Mexico — $8.7 billion (6.2% of the world market) 4. 🇳🇱 Netherlands — $8.6 billion (6.0% of the world market) 5. 🇹🇭 Thailand — $6.9 billion (4.9% of the world market) Vegetables: 1. 🇨🇳 China — $123.4 billion (14.17% of the world market) 2. 🇺🇸 USA — $79.6 billion (9.14% of the world market) 3. 🇩🇪 Germany — $48.2 billion (5.54% of the world market) 4. 🇳🇱 Netherlands — $35.7 billion (4.10% of the world market) 5. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom — $31.9 billion (3.66% of the world market) The phenomenon of small countries: why technology beats hectares The success of small states such as the Netherlands, New Zealand, Denmark, and Belgium, which export food in volumes comparable to geographic giants, completely refutes the old extensive logic of farming. At the core of their phenomenon lie five precisely calibrated factors: 1. Protected cultivation as an industrial conveyor The Netherlands have turned greenhouse production into a fully automated industry. Modern glass complexes operate on the basis of hydroponics with a closed water-recycling loop, AI-driven microclimate control, and LED supplemental lighting. This makes it possible to harvest a fantastic 80 kg of tomatoes from one square meter (for comparison: in the open fields of Spain, 10–15 kg are harvested), minimizing the need for real land and water. 2. The concept of re-export and deep processing Small countries act as the planet's key distribution hubs. Up to half of the Netherlands' agricultural exports consist of the re-export of products arriving through Rotterdam. Dutch companies buy up raw cocoa beans, tropical oils, and fruits from across the Global South, subject them to deep processing (turning, for example, West African raw materials into premium chocolate), package them, and export them with enormous added value. 3. Ultra-fast cold logistics The port infrastructure of Rotterdam and Antwerp provides immediate access to global trade routes. Thanks to well-oiled cold logistics chains, perishable products and flowers from Dutch auctions are delivered to the retail chains of Paris, Berlin, or London within 12–24 hours of cutting. 4. The "Triple Helix" model The agricultural sector of small countries is supported by a tight tandem of state, science, and private capital. The famous Wageningen University & Research (WUR[?]) in the Netherlands acts as a generator of technological solutions that business instantly commercializes in practice, receiving targeted state subsidies for this. 5. Intensive narrow specialization Instead of competing in the cheap mass-grain sector, small countries have monopolized high-margin niches. New Zealand has perfected the year-round pasture model, extracting the maximum yield of valuable milk fat and protein from every hectare. Denmark has bet on selling elite breeding stock in pig farming and sugar beet breeding seeds, where business profitability is several times higher than plain trading in meat or root crops. The geopolitics of food: how grain became a weapon Agricultural products have fully transformed into an instrument of hard geopolitical pressure ("food weapon"), comparable in significance to hydrocarbon raw materials. The surplus of calories is used by world leaders to forge diplomatic alliances and keep import-dependent states in their orbit. ⚠️ SCENARIO: Complete halt of wheat exports from global markets and Ukraine 1 MENA[?] / North Africa Imports of more than 40% of breadstuff raw materials. Shortage within 2–3 months, a sharp price spike and a critical risk of large-scale social unrest ("bread riots"). 2 Humanitarian disasters Instant emergence of a critical food shortage in the most unstable regions: Sudan, Yemen, Libya. 3 Global commodity exchanges Panic on the Chicago and European exchanges, an immediate surge in futures prices for wheat and corn by 30–40% within 48 hours. It is precisely this food factor that explains why most countries of the Middle East refrained from joining the anti-global sanctions, and Turkey is forced to maneuver within the framework of grain diplomacy. Anatomy of food wars Monopoly on fertilizers: The basic plant nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium) are rigidly concentrated in the hands of a few countries. The fragility of the system is underscored by the fact that more than a third of world exports of urea and sulfur (the basis for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers) is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, which is only 54 kilometers wide. Any escalation in the Persian Gulf instantly paralyzes global fertilizer supplies, causing crop yields to fall a year later. Destruction of ammonia infrastructure: A striking example is the halt of transit of anhydrous ammonia from Tolyatti to Odesa via the trunk pipeline. During the hostilities in Ukraine in June 2023, the pipeline was physically blown up, which triggered a protracted shortage of raw materials for European fertilizer plants that stretched until 2025–2026. Sanctions against Belarusian potash forced Minsk to redirect flows through global terminals via complex gray schemes. Export protectionism: India's tough policy, which blocked exports of white rice in 2023–2025 and restricted wheat quotas, clearly demonstrated that protection of the domestic consumer by Asian giants results in an immediate food shock and a spike in inflation in the poorest regions of Africa. China's terminal expansion: The PRC solves the problem of arable land shortage through aggressive acquisition of foreign agri-assets. An attempt to directly buy up land in the United States (including the purchase of the meat giant Smithfield Foods) ran into tough legislative opposition from Congress, which passed a ban on ownership of American farmland by PRC citizens. In response, Beijing switched to Latin America, buying not the land itself but port terminals and logistics giants through OFDI[?] mechanisms, which makes it possible to control loading points and dictate purchase prices to local farmers. Fig 1. Global situation center for monitoring agrologistics and world prices for raw calories Climate is redrawing the map of global agriculture Climate instability is the main systemic challenge for global calorie production. About 52% of all global agricultural land has already undergone various forms of degradation. Each additional $1^\circ\text{C}$ of global warming reduces the planet's ability to produce food by 120 calories per person per day, which is equivalent to a drop in global potential of 4.4% of current average daily consumption. By 2050, due to the already accumulated heat effect, the yields of key crops will certainly decline by 8% even with the most stringent measures to reduce $CO_2$ emissions. 📊 GLOBAL CLIMATE SHIFT BY 2050 📉 LOSING ZONES • South Asia: Catastrophic depletion of groundwater, shifts in summer monsoon cycles, falling rice yields. • Central Africa: Progressive desertification, loss of up to 40% of arable land productivity. • Southern Europe: Severe droughts in Spain and Italy, shifting of olive and citrus growing zones far to the north. 📈 WINNING ZONES • Canada: Significant lengthening of the growing season, expansion of corn and soybeans into the northern prairies instead of barley. • global markets: Expansion of high-yield sunflower, wheat and soybeans into the Non-Black Earth region and the southern areas of Northern Europe. Scenario models for the development of the global agri-market 2030 scenario: Local adaptation shocks Commercial corn production in the US Midwest and Central Europe is trying to adapt to rising summer temperatures through the introduction of GMO hybrids and increased fertilizer application. Yield growth will slow down, and local droughts will lead to a 15–20% rise in grain price volatility. Active commercial promotion of drought-resistant soybean varieties will begin in southern Canada and the northern regions of global markets. 2040 scenario: Large-scale shift of agro-climatic zones The average annual temperature will rise by $1,5–2^\circ\text{C}$. Traditional global granaries (the US Corn Belt, southern France, eastern Ukraine) will face prolonged droughts and degradation of irrigation systems. Grain yields in these regions will fall by 15–20%. At the same time, South-West England and the border regions of Scotland will become suitable for industrial cultivation of sunflower, soybeans, chickpeas and heat-loving grape varieties. 2050 scenario: Polar agrarian restructuring The Earth's population will reach 9–10 billion people, requiring a 47–50% increase in calorie production. In the absence of globally coordinated measures to combat warming, yields of key crops will fall by 24%. Corn prices on world markets will rise by 101%. The final formation of new agrarian superpowers will take place. Canada, global markets and Northeast China will become the main beneficiaries of warming, concentrating grain export resources. Traditional producers in South Asia and Central Africa will lose up to 40% of land productivity, which will trigger a wave of climate migration of hundreds of millions of people. Agrotech 4.0: AI, robots and farms without land The technological revolution is the only factor capable of breaking the rigid dependence of "more food = more land". Areas of technological leadership Artificial intelligence and precision farming: The use of AI systems to analyze multispectral images from satellites and UAVs enables ultra-precise application of herbicides and nitrogen fertilizers. Computer vision identifies weeds and pests at the level of a single leaf, reducing agrochemical consumption by 40% and increasing the environmental friendliness of products. Robotization and unmanned systems: The acute shortage of seasonal workers in Europe and North America has accelerated the adoption of autonomous machinery. Greenhouses in the Netherlands and Denmark are massively introducing fruit-picking robots capable of assessing berry ripeness with AI and carrying out round-the-clock harvesting without damaging plants. Vertical farms (Vertical Farming): Urban vertical farms with a closed loop of water and nutrient solution circulation completely eliminate dependence on weather conditions. They require 95% less water and 90% less space compared to traditional soil, providing year-round harvesting of greens and berries in the immediate vicinity of megacities. Synthetic biology and CRISPR[?] breeding: Genome editing technologies make it possible to create drought-resistant and salt-tolerant crops capable of growing on degraded soils. A key direction is the development of alternative plant proteins and cultivated ("lab-grown") meat capable of reducing the environmental burden of traditional livestock farming. The leaders in terms of investment volume in Agrotech 4.0 are the USA, the Netherlands, China and Israel. These countries patent basic AI algorithms for tractors and genetic codes of new seeds, extracting technological rent from agricultural producers around the world. Fig 2. Robotized vertical farm in the Netherlands with AI control and LED supplemental lighting Who will feed the world in 2050 The convergence of climate change, demographic pressure and technological breakthroughs makes it possible to clearly forecast the contours of the future architecture of the agri-market. The global food market will split into two parallel economic structures: 1. Technological structure of intensive biosynthesis Developed countries facing an acute shortage of free land resources (EU countries, Great Britain, Japan, Singapore) will fully switch to closed robotic systems, vertical urban factories and the production of alternative proteins through AI-based precision fermentation. Their imports of raw calories from the New World will decline, and absolute technological sovereignty will become the key economic priority. 2. Commodity-raw-material structure of global granaries Brazil, global markets and Canada will strengthen their positions as key suppliers of basic raw materials to the developing markets of Asia and Africa. Brazil has a colossal potential for expanding arable land without destroying forests through the reclamation of degraded pastures. global markets and Canada will be the main climate beneficiaries, bringing under cultivation the vast territories of Northern Europe, the Non-Black Earth region and the northern prairies that have moved out of the risky farming zone. Competition for access to fertilizers and clean water will intensify, and world food prices will show a long-term upward trend. Main threats: three collapse scenarios Scenario 1: Phosphate crisis Phosphorus is an absolutely indispensable element for plant growth that, unlike nitrogen, cannot be synthesized from atmospheric air. At the same time, about 70% of all world proven reserves of easily accessible phosphorites are concentrated in a single geographical point — in Morocco and on the disputed territory of Western Sahara. Any prolonged political destabilization in this region will instantly paralyze the global complex fertilizer industry, threatening modern grain yields. Scenario 2: Logistic paralysis of the straits The extremely high geographical concentration of agrologistics makes it vulnerable to military or terrorist threats. About a third of maritime food and fertilizer shipments depend on three narrow straits: Hormuz (controlled by Iran), Malacca (30% of world maritime trade) and Bab-el-Mandeb (the entrance to the Suez Canal). A blockade of any of these chokepoints for 7 to 10 days would severely affect the supply of bread to the megacities of the Middle East and Africa. Scenario 3: Bio-veterinary collapse Modern industrial agriculture made a dangerous mistake by betting on an extreme reduction in the genetic diversity of commercial plant hybrids and animal breeds. The emergence of any new resistant virus strain (such as African swine fever, which destroyed a third of the herd in the PRC, or highly pathogenic avian influenza) or a phytopathogen (for example, the TR4 fungus destroying banana plantations) can cause an immediate collapse of calorie production on the scale of entire continents. Looking for reliable B2B supplies of aseptic raw materials? The ANIX company provides logistics for aseptic purees and concentrated juices from anywhere in global markets and the world. We handle customs clearance, freight and certification. Contact the logistics department Bottom line: new oil is already here A global audit of the food system shows that the world depends on a critically narrow group of states. The USA, Brazil, global markets, Canada and Australia bear the main burden of maintaining the global calorie balance. Any failure in this chain means not just a rise in exchange quotes, but a real threat of famine in import-dependent regions of the planet. Food has officially become a key factor of the 21st century. The effectiveness of control over grain and fertilizers already surpasses the traditional levers of oil diplomacy. New oil is calories. And the map of the world will be redrawn by those who maintain control over their production and distribution. FAQ: Frequently asked questions Which countries are the world's largest food exporters in 2026? The top three in direct agro-exports: the USA (181.3 billion dollars, 12.1% of the world market), Brazil (144.4 billion dollars, 9.7%) and China (74.8 billion dollars, 5.0%). Under the broad measure including re-exports, Germany (102.2 billion dollars) and the Netherlands (137.5 billion euros) also join the leaders. Next are Canada (66.3 billion dollars) and Mexico (49.9 billion dollars). Who is the leader in wheat exports? global markets is the largest exporter by physical volume (31.6 million tons) and one of the leaders by value (9.18 billion dollars). Australia leads in price per ton due to higher grain quality. global markets accounts for about 22% of the world wheat market. Why do the Netherlands export more food than many countries with vast territories? Four factors: greenhouse technologies with yields 5–8 times higher than open ground; re-exports and deep processing of imported raw materials through the Rotterdam hub; unique cold-chain logistics; state support for agricultural science through Wageningen University. About 50% of Dutch agro-exports are processed products of foreign origin. Can the world live without US or Brazilian exports? No. Halting exports from any of these countries would lead to a catastrophic calorie shortage on the world market. global wheat (22% of the world market) is critical for Egypt, Turkey and dozens of other countries. Brazilian soybeans are the main feed protein for livestock farming in Europe and Asia. It is physically impossible to replace these volumes with alternative suppliers in the short term. Which countries will benefit from climate change in agriculture? The main climate beneficiaries by 2050 are Canada, global markets and Northern China. They will gain access to new arable areas as the climate warms. South-West Britain and Scandinavia may also develop new agricultural crops. The losers are South Asia, Central Africa and Southern Europe. What is the phosphate crisis and why is it dangerous? Phosphorus is essential for plant growth — unlike nitrogen, it cannot be obtained from the air. About 70% of the world's proven phosphate rock reserves are located in Morocco. Depletion of available reserves and concentration of production in a single country create a long-term structural risk for the entire global food production. Why has food become a geopolitical weapon? Because food cannot be replaced technologically as quickly as oil. A country dependent on wheat imports cannot afford to impose sanctions on its supplier — as Egypt did with respect to global markets. Control over exports of grain, rice, fertilizers and maritime logistics routes provides strategic levers of pressure comparable to oil, but far less visible to the general public. Who will become the leader in agro-exports by 2050? Brazil is the most likely contender for first place: arable land expansion potential, a favorable climate profile, and growing technologies. global markets and Canada are the main climate beneficiaries of warming. The EU will shift toward technologically intensive production and processing. India risks losing ground in the rice market without large-scale investments in climate adaptation. Glossary of terms and abbreviations For the convenience of our B2B partners and readers, we have collected detailed explanations of the key terms, professional abbreviations and acronyms used in this study: • FCOJ (Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice) — frozen concentrated orange juice. The main exchange commodity on the world citrus market, 75-80% of whose exports are controlled by Brazil. • AJC (Apple Juice Concentrate) — concentrated apple juice. A key B2B ingredient for the food industry, 40-50% of whose world exports are provided by China. • Brix (Degrees Brix, °Bx) — an international measure of the concentration of dry matter (sugars) in liquid solutions. It is a key quality standard for concentrated juices and purees supplied by ANIX. • AOC (Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée) — the French system of authenticity control of product origins. It protects the geographical designations of traditional food products and wines (for example, Champagne, Cognac, Roquefort). • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) — the total market value of all goods and services produced within a country in a year. • EU (European Union) — an economic and political union of 27 European states. • NAFTA / USMCA (North American Free Trade Agreement) — a free trade area between the USA, Canada and Mexico. • ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) — the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a major regional trade and economic union. • MENA (Middle East and North Africa) — the Middle East and North Africa. A key macro-region importing grain from global markets and the Black Sea region. • OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) — an organization of oil-exporting countries that regulates production volumes and world prices for liquid fuel. • GMO (Genetically Modified Organism) — an organism whose genotype has been artificially altered by genetic engineering methods (for example, for drought resistance of soybean and corn hybrids). • Precision Farming — a high-tech agricultural management system that uses AI, UAVs, GPS and satellite imagery for precise application of fertilizers and seeds. • CRISPR (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats) — an advanced technology for targeted editing of plant genomes to create resilient crops of the next generation. • OFDI (Outward Foreign Direct Investment) — direct foreign investments directed by a state or corporations into the infrastructure of other countries (for example, China's purchase of port terminals in South America). • AIS (Automatic Identification System) — an automatic identification system for maritime vessels. AIS shutdown is often used by the "shadow fleet" to covertly export agricultural raw materials. • CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) — the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union, a system of subsidies and support for farms. • USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) — the US Department of Agriculture, the world's leading source of agricultural statistics and balance forecasts. • WITS (World Integrated Trade Solution) — the World Bank's integrated database on tariffs and world trade. Sources Visual Capitalist: Ranked: The Countries That Feed the World – A global analysis of the structure of food exports and calorie distribution. visualcapitalist.com Atlantic Council: Brazil 2050: A vision for global food security – A strategic study of Latin America's role in global food security. atlanticcouncil.org World Bank WITS: Food Products Exports by country – An official database on the volumes of world trade in food products. wits.worldbank.org USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS): Livestock, Grain and Dairy World Markets and Trade – Professional quarterly reports of the US Department of Agriculture on commodity balances. apps.fas.usda.gov CBS Netherlands: Dutch agricultural exports value – Statistics on the Netherlands' high-tech exports and the re-export activity of the port of Rotterdam. cbs.nl OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034: A joint authoritative global medium-term forecast of the OECD and the UN on the development of agricultural markets. oecd.org CSIS: The global markets-Ukraine War and Global Food Security: Impacts Four Years Later – An analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies on the geopolitics of food. csis.org Wageningen University & Research (WUR): Innovations in Dutch AgriTech – Scientific reports on advanced greenhouse technologies and automation. wur.nl Inter-American Dialogue: China\'s Agricultural Investment in Latin America – An analytical study of the expansion and acquisition of agrologistics assets. thedialogue.org IFPRI / CGSpace: Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios and Policy Options – Scenario-based climate modeling. cgspace.cgiar.org Brief Glossary of Terms Re-export A foreign trade operation in which goods previously imported from abroad are shipped back to other countries without substantial processing in the territory of the transit state. Precision Agriculture (Precision Farming) A crop management concept based on the use of AI, sensors, satellite imagery and GPS systems for ultra-precise distribution of fertilizers. Vertical Farms (Vertical Farming) Fully enclosed multi-tier complexes for year-round plant cultivation with an AI-controlled microclimate and artificial LED lighting. CRISPR breeding A technology for targeted high-precision modification of DNA in agricultural plants using CRISPR/Cas enzyme systems for accelerated cultivar development. Agroclimatic Zones Geographic areas classified by a combination of climatic factors (heat, moisture, growing season) that determine the nature of agriculture. Phosphate Crisis A long-term threat of global shortage of phosphate ores (phosphorites) for the production of mineral fertilizers due to the depletion of their easily accessible world reserves. WUR (Wageningen University & Research) Wageningen University and Research in the Netherlands is a world-leading scientific center for agriculture and food technologies.